Naples Season Report 2027: What Season Means for Rental Income and When to Buy
Published October 29, 2026 by Source One Realty
In short
Naples rental income is earned December through April. March 2026 lodging ran 76.5% occupancy at $504.65 a night versus 45.5% at $261.89 in August. Inventory is down 17.3% year over year heading into season, so the best negotiating window for resale is before January. Pre-construction lets you lock a price now and take delivery from fall 2026 through 2029.
The season in numbers
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Collier lodging occupancy, Mar 2026 | 76.5% | CVB |
| Collier ADR, Mar 2026 | $504.65 (+10.7% YoY) | CVB |
| Collier ADR, Aug 2026 | $261.89 | CVB |
| Naples STR occupancy, TTM Sep 2026 | 58% (+6.5% YoY) | AirDNA |
| Naples STR ADR, TTM | $333 | AirDNA |
| Naples STR RevPAR | $194 (+15.1% YoY) | AirDNA |
| Active STR listings | 3,905 (-40.5% YoY) | AirDNA |
| FY2025 visitor direct spending | $2.884B | CVB |
Collier lodging average nightly rate
- March 2025$456.06
- March 2026$504.65
- August 2026$261.89
Read: income is concentrated in roughly five months, and supply has thinned. Underwrite to seasonal, not average, numbers.
The resale market heading into season (NABOR, September 2026)
| Metric | Sep 2025 | Sep 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median closed price | $550,000 | $575,000 | +4.5% |
| Inventory | 5,128 | 4,240 | -17.3% |
| Months of supply | 7.8 | 5.5 | -29.5% |
| Pct of list received | 93.9% | 94.8% | +0.9 pts |
| Condo median | $400,000 | -2.4% | |
| Condo pendings | 299 | -15.8% |
Inventory
- Sep 20255,128
- Sep 20264,240
Rolling 12-month median: $590,000 (-1.7%), single family $750,000, condos $435,000. Prices are holding, not running. Condo pricing is still adjusting to Florida's building inspection and reserve rules, which is a big reason new construction is getting attention at the top of the market.
Buying timing: fall vs season
- Before January: fewer buyers in town, sellers prepping to list. Better leverage on resale.
- January to April: the most showings and the most competition. Good for seeing the lifestyle, bad for price.
- Pre-construction: price is set at contract, deposits are staged, and delivery dates let you plan your first rental season.
Four pre-construction options, $2M to $10M
| Project | Pricing | Delivery | Rental angle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tower Residences | From $2M; penthouses over $7M | Move-in fall 2026 | Could be ready for part of the 2027 season |
| Bayfront Residences | $2M to $3.2M; PH from $5.2M | Late 2028 | Walkable bayfront, 2029 season first |
| Fifth Avenue South | $3.55M to $8.35M; 40% sold | 2028 | Downtown location, scarce inventory |
| Marina Residences | From $3M; 120-slip marina | 2029 | Boating buyers, long runway to plan |
Rental rules differ building by building. Many Naples condo associations set minimum lease terms. Read each project's declaration before you underwrite short-term income.
The Airbnb fee change and your numbers
Since Oct 27, 2025, Airbnb charges professionally managed listings a single 15.5% host fee. Airbnb's own example: a $100 rate left unchanged pays $84.50. Model your net on that, or plan to raise rates about 18.34% to hold payout (Guesty guidance), and compare against direct-booking and seasonal 30+ night strategies.
Michelle Norton represents buyers on all four projects. Book a Naples consultation or call 239-452-0130.
Source One Realty Florida, Inc., Florida Brokerage License #CQ1075593, 1085 Business Lane, Naples, FL 34110. Source One Realty's Ohio brokerage is separately licensed in Ohio. Florida transactions are handled by Florida licensees. Pricing and delivery dates are developer figures as of October 2026 and can change. Not tax or legal advice.
Frequently asked questions
- When is the best time to buy in Naples?
- Fall, before season buyers arrive. Inventory is down 17.3% YoY, but leverage is better before January.
- How much can a Naples rental earn?
- AirDNA shows a $333 average nightly rate and 58% occupancy across Naples listings, with peak months far higher. Results depend on building rules and location.
- Are Naples condo prices falling?
- The condo median is $400,000, down 2.4% YoY, while single family is up. Older buildings are absorbing reserve and inspection costs.
- Which pre-construction projects deliver first?
- Tower Residences, with move-in planned for fall 2026.
- Can I rent a new-construction condo short term?
- It depends on each association's rules. Check the declaration before you buy.
Sources
Talk to the Naples team
Source One Realty is a licensed Florida real estate brokerage representing buyers and sellers across Naples and Southwest Florida. Florida Brokerage License #CQ1075593.